Murray, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS63 KPAH 141109
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
609 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday. A
  strong capping inversion makes for large uncertainty in the
  total threat. Supercells with hail and tornado potential would
  be the primary concern.

- On and off chances of showers and storms continue Saturday
  through Tuesday.

- A significant increase in heat and humidity is on our
  doorstep.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The persistent but weakening upper level closed low that has
been pestering us the last few days is now well off to our east
over east Tennessee with the next major weathermaker over the
intermountain west in ID/NV/CA. A large, strong elevated mixed
layer is evident on downstream observed and overhead forecast
model soundings that should significantly increase convective
inhibition during the day today. An area of much richer moisture
with dewpoints over 65-70 degrees sits to our southwest and the
approach of this upper trough and an increase in our south
winds should see an "in your face" increase in the heat and
humidity over the region today. A few showers may squeeze out in
this heat in a shallow layer under the EML but it looks like it
will be very hard to get anything of significance today.

It will be even hotter on Thursday with highs working towards 90
degrees with dewpoints in the low 70s. The residual EML will
keep a strong capping inversion in place but the POTENTIAL
instability will be very large with MLCAPEs 2500-3000 J/kg. The
jet-level ascent will remain fairly neutral through the event
but lift from a front approaching from the northwest will need
to be watched closely to see if it can break some parcels
through. If so a fairly explosive environment for scattered
discrete supercells would exist with very large hail and some
tornado potential given the instability and shear profiles. It
very much looks like an all or nothing scenario with final
answers rendered by very subtle jet-level ascent or mesoscale
thermodynamic details. High-res CAMs may help as they continue
to process the environment but if I had to bet one side or the
other I tend to think we stay capped. The highest risk overall
appears to be from about Perry Co., MO eastward along and north
of IL Rte 13 and I-64.

Friday also remains relatively muddy. GFS/ECMWF deterministic
runs are in fair agreement on a shortwave trough over Iowa with
a west southwesterly 120-130 kt jet maxima to the south by
Friday afternoon. That positioning would be a net convergent
solution aloft or neutral at best (unless a little shortwave
weirdness sneaks in there). The EML is still modeled to be in
place and that neutral upper level environment would likely not
substantially change it with 500mb height falls not really
increasing til after 03-06z when the best mix of shear and
instability will have diminished. However, the heat and 70+
dewpoints and 40-45 kt low level jet look to provide a
turbocharged parameter space with STP values 5-10 even in global
model guidance. It does look more likely than not (but
definitely not guaranteed) that we fail to convect in that most
explosive window, but there will still be plenty to deal with
in the evening. Guidance is also in significant disagreement
with the placement of a residual cold front that returns as a
warm front which would likely serve as a focus mechanism for
convective initiation. If those details can be settled then
details on timing, placement, intensity and the overall threat
will become much clearer.

A front clears behind this activity before moisture return,
troughiness and generally unsettled weather resumes. We will
have to watch for severe potential each day Sunday through
Tuesday with Tuesday currently looking the most intriguing,
although not a slam dunk setup by any means.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Patchy ground fog should mix out quickly this morning with VFR
conditions forecast through the remaining TAF period. Winds will
pick up higher than what we have seen the last few days gusting
at 13 to 18 kts in the afternoon before diminishing somewhat
after sunset. There is a very small chance for convection in the
late afternoon but the risk is too low for TAF mention at the
moment.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG