Murray, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS63 KPAH 172157
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
457 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding is ongoing across the region. Water levels will be
  slow to fall through early next week.

- Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms are expected to
  impact the area Friday night through the weekend. Heavy
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over southeast
  Missouri and southern Illinois, with well under an inch
  expected over much of west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday
  night. There may be a heightened concern late Sunday afternoon
  and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Rainfall this weekend will have little impact on the falling
river levels, as the greatest rainfall will be to the northwest
of the worst hit areas from early this month. Perhaps there
could be a minor secondary crest in our southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana rivers.

In general, the focus for thunderstorm development Friday night
has shifted slightly to the northwest. The Slight Risk is now
northwest of a line from Perryville Missouri to Fairfield
Illinois, and the Bootheel and west Kentucky are not even in the
Marginal Risk. An impressive capping inversion will overspread
the Quad State tonight, and it will take considerable forcing to
eliminate it and allow convection to develop. The HREF indicates
that the best chance of severe Friday night will be in the
Slight Risk area from 09Z-12Z Saturday. The CAPE and shear
parameter space definitely would support a few severe storms
with all severe modes possible, especially in the Slight Risk
area. However, farther to the southeast, much of the region
could remain dry Friday night into Saturday.

Saturday is looking quite muddle with the potential for a
boundary to be draped across the northwest and the flow aloft
becoming more meridional. SPC has shifted the Slight Risk
northwest and it now only covers Carter County and portions of
Wayne and Ripley. Saturday will be difficult to pin down, but
there are no signs of any significant severe threat at this time.
The Marginal Risk over the bulk of the region seems reasonable,
with shear and instability both in doubt.

Sunday afternoon and evening still looks like the most
significant severe threat. A strong storm system will lift from
the southern Plains early Sunday to the upper Mississippi Valley
by Monday morning. There are signs of it becoming more
negatively-tilted. This should push the active surface boundary
quickly to the north of the Quad State and the low and deep
layer shear will be very strong through the afternoon and into
the evening. If there is enough moisture return, some robust
convection is likely along and just ahead of the cold front in
the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be
possible whether there are individual supercells or some more
linear formation. Given the strength of the low and deep layer
shear, some higher end severe cannot be ruled out. Large hail
will also be possible, especially with any supercells.

The heavy rainfall threat has also shifted to the northwest a
bit, with stormtotal QPF of 1 to 2 inches limited to
northwestern portions of southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Much of southwest Indiana and west Kentucky will
receive under an inch, mostly Sunday afternoon and evening. With
only 1 to 2 inches over a 48-60 hour period, significant
flooding issues are not likely to develop, but we will continue
to monitor for any southward shift in the heavy rainfall
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Warm sector southerlies will continue with gustiness that peaks
during the daylight hours. Time/height cross sections flirt with
a restricted base developing/advecting into the area late
tonight-early tmrw, which may include some light shower
accompaniment, not dissimilar from what occurred this morning.
We`ve included that for vicinity mention at the most prone
terminals further northwest (KMVN-KCGI) while MVFR bases SCT-BKN
prevail into/thru the planning phase hours, with higher
probabilities for pcpn incoming thereafter.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$